Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 215.759714 263.233462 322.415384 403.025823 512.238707 6.585531e+02 8.757301e+02
2025-06-01 155.468081 206.664181 278.567149 391.184447 571.792885 8.676746e+02 1.433310e+03
2025-06-08 122.325714 172.019371 247.650881 378.489018 616.988352 1.078017e+03 2.189497e+03
2025-06-15 110.295144 163.410389 250.647672 417.193992 764.438578 1.573908e+03 4.194495e+03
2025-06-22 96.180067 147.755225 237.152733 420.645268 845.123133 2.001562e+03 6.946025e+03
2025-06-29 86.979316 138.092639 231.205458 435.970184 961.274630 2.651077e+03 1.278925e+04
2025-07-06 77.615216 126.287075 218.344635 431.919250 1027.557843 3.238855e+03 2.184057e+04
2025-07-13 74.354948 124.867114 225.203057 475.312907 1259.376420 4.873830e+03 6.166881e+04
2025-07-20 70.954160 122.509714 229.487083 514.327432 1513.850128 7.309787e+03 2.322843e+05
2025-07-27 67.232227 118.861038 230.101675 544.126382 1767.701357 1.074244e+04 1.503984e+06
2025-08-03 63.156257 113.843045 226.520045 560.797459 1989.900800 1.517713e+04 4.810510e+07
2025-08-10 58.966958 107.987261 219.798071 565.631781 2168.587431 2.059370e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 54.221079 100.576900 208.551900 554.278119 2271.572874 2.651353e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 49.758924 93.277065 196.415913 536.376159 2328.787590 3.299026e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 45.807234 86.654004 184.930712 517.226719 2365.825556 4.048289e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 45.235608 87.567774 193.415218 575.901091 3038.067176 9.486774e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 42.797957 83.857716 188.640504 581.170672 3326.836871 1.578273e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 41.146324 81.802815 188.152489 604.639207 3845.307382 3.510439e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 38.802106 77.821185 181.428660 598.424324 4071.555728 6.237787e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 38.509518 78.809557 189.609590 665.414204 5360.436457 5.725646e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 37.938271 79.029437 195.551813 726.404278 6909.449501 3.952305e+09 NaN
2025-10-19 37.030187 78.277294 198.300528 773.454561 8567.891203 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 35.778349 76.486503 197.328824 799.948421 10067.126471 NaN NaN